DG:EURONEXT PARIS
VINCI SA
Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time
$145.52
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Dollar General is riding a strong bullish trend as the short‑term moving average sits above the longer‑term average and both are comfortably above the 200‑day benchmark, suggesting sustained upward momentum. The RSI sits in the mid‑range, indicating room for upside without immediate overbought pressure, while the MACD shows a bearish divergence that could temper short‑term gains. Volatility remains elevated and beta is essentially neutral, reflecting a stock that moves independently of broader market swings, with price currently testing a well‑defined support near the lower end of its recent range and approaching a resistance ceiling that aligns with its 52‑week high.
Fundamentally, the company delivers modest revenue growth and solid cash generation, supporting a dividend yield above 1½ % with a payout ratio comfortably below 50 %. Margins are thin but stable, and free cash flow comfortably covers debt service despite a high leverage ratio. The DCF model values the stock well below its market price, flagging an overvaluation concern, yet analyst consensus remains bullish, reinforced by recent earnings beats and an aggressive expansion strategy highlighted in the latest news.
Fundamentally, the company delivers modest revenue growth and solid cash generation, supporting a dividend yield above 1½ % with a payout ratio comfortably below 50 %. Margins are thin but stable, and free cash flow comfortably covers debt service despite a high leverage ratio. The DCF model values the stock well below its market price, flagging an overvaluation concern, yet analyst consensus remains bullish, reinforced by recent earnings beats and an aggressive expansion strategy highlighted in the latest news.
Trading Recommendations
Short Term
< 1 yearhold
Conviction: 7/10
Key Factors
- MACD bearish histogram suggests possible short‑term pullback
- Price nearing key support level
- Elevated 30‑day volatility
Medium Term
1–3 yearsbuy
Conviction: 8/10
Key Factors
- 20‑day SMA above 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs indicating bullish trend
- Recent earnings beat and positive analyst sentiment
- Sustainable dividend with strong cash flow
Long Term
> 3 yearshold
Conviction: 6/10
Key Factors
- Defensive consumer‑staples positioning reduces sector cyclicality
- Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
- High leverage balanced by robust operating cash flow
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth4.60%
Profit Margin3.03%
P/E Ratio25.1
ROE16.45%
ROA4.19%
Debt/Equity201.66
P/B Ratio3.9
Op. Cash Flow$3.6B
Free Cash Flow$2.0B
Technical Analysis
TrendBullish
RSI43.1
Support$141.62
Resistance$158.23
MA 20$150.74
MA 50$146.85
MA 200$118.78
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89
Valuation
Fair Value$81.72
Target Price$148.32
Upside/Downside1.93%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.61%
Risk Assessment
Beta-0.06
Volatility27.51%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium
More Tickers
This analysis may contain inaccuracies. Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.