DG:EURONEXT PARIS

VINCI SA

Data as of 2026-03-10 - not real-time

$145.52

Latest Price

6/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Dollar General is riding a strong bullish trend as the short‑term moving average sits above the longer‑term average and both are comfortably above the 200‑day benchmark, suggesting sustained upward momentum. The RSI sits in the mid‑range, indicating room for upside without immediate overbought pressure, while the MACD shows a bearish divergence that could temper short‑term gains. Volatility remains elevated and beta is essentially neutral, reflecting a stock that moves independently of broader market swings, with price currently testing a well‑defined support near the lower end of its recent range and approaching a resistance ceiling that aligns with its 52‑week high.
Fundamentally, the company delivers modest revenue growth and solid cash generation, supporting a dividend yield above 1½ % with a payout ratio comfortably below 50 %. Margins are thin but stable, and free cash flow comfortably covers debt service despite a high leverage ratio. The DCF model values the stock well below its market price, flagging an overvaluation concern, yet analyst consensus remains bullish, reinforced by recent earnings beats and an aggressive expansion strategy highlighted in the latest news.

Trading Recommendations

Short Term

< 1 year
hold
Conviction: 7/10

Key Factors

  • MACD bearish histogram suggests possible short‑term pullback
  • Price nearing key support level
  • Elevated 30‑day volatility

Medium Term

1–3 years
buy
Conviction: 8/10

Key Factors

  • 20‑day SMA above 50‑day and 200‑day SMAs indicating bullish trend
  • Recent earnings beat and positive analyst sentiment
  • Sustainable dividend with strong cash flow

Long Term

> 3 years
hold
Conviction: 6/10

Key Factors

  • Defensive consumer‑staples positioning reduces sector cyclicality
  • Valuation gap between market price and DCF fair value
  • High leverage balanced by robust operating cash flow

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth4.60%
Profit Margin3.03%
P/E Ratio25.1
ROE16.45%
ROA4.19%
Debt/Equity201.66
P/B Ratio3.9
Op. Cash Flow$3.6B
Free Cash Flow$2.0B

Technical Analysis

TrendBullish
RSI43.1
Support$141.62
Resistance$158.23
MA 20$150.74
MA 50$146.85
MA 200$118.78
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index75.89

Valuation

Fair Value$81.72
Target Price$148.32
Upside/Downside1.93%
GradeOvervalued
TypeValue
Dividend Yield1.61%

Risk Assessment

Beta-0.06
Volatility27.51%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskLow
Liquidity RiskMedium

This analysis may contain inaccuracies. Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.